Title of the Paper: Simulation Approach to Improve Performance of the Seasonal Time Series Decomposition Method
Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed
Abstract: A simulation method to model seasonal time series is developed. Using the ratio of seasonal data to nonlinear periodic trend, simulation parameters of the seasonal indices are identified. A decomposed seasonal time series is re-seasonalized to identify the combined random as well as cyclical indices in the seasonal model. These indices are modeled as a multi channel queue system. The seasonal time series is constructed as a multiplicative decomposition simulation model. To improve performance of the time series, the simulation model identifies the best seasonal indices and combined cyclical and random indices. These indices are updated whenever the simulation search improves squared error criteria of the fitted model. The simulated optimized seasonal, random and cyclical indices are used finally to re-seasonalize the data for forecast evaluation. The software is developed to test the performance of the approach using airline travel data available in Box, Jenkins and Reinsel (1994). The proposed simulation method achieves 38.89% improvement in squared error measure against the X-11 decomposition method.
Keywords: simulation, seasonal, time series, indices, multiplicative, decomposition
Title of the Paper: Effect of The Project Control Management Through Networking Communication Perspective
Authors: S.-C. Lee, Jenn Tang
Abstract: Our study considers the dual characteristics of the networking platform for interaction and the networking content for formality as the construction of organizational management activities that involve network technologies. Of particular concern is the project control mechanism, implementing which is one of the five most important major management activities described by [15]. The empirical study concerns a consulting company that operates a community. Moreover, our study explores how network technologies are used in organizational management activities, especially with respect to project control issues. Many propositions are made in the conclusions which provide contributions including the networking interaction & formality are positively correlated with communication, especially on the project control mechanisms in a firm; however, the degree of interaction has less effect on the formality than formality on interaction while communicating around network environment.
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